a99kitten's Musings

Have been swamped with a couple new clients plus tax time so hadn’t looked at my trading account quarterly P/L until this morning. I knew it would be bad, but ouch. I think was a good case for ignorance is bliss. Sigh… – 10% for the quarter. 10.3 to be exact.

This is my first losing quarter since the 1st quarter of 2012. Which I guess is good but ugh. The really dumb thing is up until mid-March, I was solidly up. I place blame at the feet of Janet Yellen! Of course, my insistence at continuing to play when the game changed was very dumb.

Looking at my trades from the quarter, I **really** owe Elon Musk a big hug as I made a lot trading TSLA. CEO crush confirmed :)

And my second biggest gains are tied – trading PLUG and precious metals (both silver and gold in various forms.) This further solidifies my Uncle Scrooge love as well ;)

Another hero :)

Biggest loser? AMZN calls held through ER. Ugh. First time they let me down though so I guess that I can’t complain too much. 2nd biggest loser? AAPL. I made so much money trading AAPL calls in the past. It was so fun. The fun has sure been sucked out of that stock though. I am making myself a promise – NO MORE AAPL! I have my long term common paying me dividends (and that’s about all it does lately) but no more trading it. It’s a slug. And that’s insulting to slugs. Oh well. My fault. Tim Cook didn’t make me buy the options.

Had I listened to chessNwine (over at iBankCoin), I would have been less invested over this time period. But the gambler in me couldn’t help it. Luckily I never play too large in options since you can literally lose 100% pretty quickly (quickly when playing in the momo stocks anyway.) I know I’ll make it back. But I hate when I feel stupid. And there was more than 1 occasion (a lot more) when I KNEW I should sell something but the greedy devil inside me said “hold out for a little more”. And then POOF. Just like letting it all ride on black and the ball lands on red. Stupid. I get mad at myself when I do stupid things and KNOW I know better. Grrrr.

A Jedi uses the Force for knowledge and defense…so I WILL make it back and then some. But all I can think right now is I should be adding to gains, not making up losses. *shakesfist*

“MF Global Holdings Ltd. acknowledged to federal regulators that money had been diverted out of customer accounts in violation of futures rules and law, according to a federal official.

The Wall Street brokerage, which filed for bankruptcy protection Monday, acknowledged the shortfall amid mounting questions from regulators as they went through the firm’s books while trying to facilitate a sale to Interactive Brokers Group Inc., the official said. Regulators still don’t know where the customer funds went, who directed the move or how widespread the practice was, the official said.”

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204394804577012061970129588.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

What a dumbass.

As someone who worked at a hedge fund, and handled portfolio accounting for some of the funds, you NEVER touch the client’s money. Not to save another client. Not to save yourself.  This is so, so dumb and such perfect fodder for the Occupy losers. Gah.

I guess he got so used to spending other people’s money as a politician, he forgot it really wasn’t his.

Dumb ass.

But then there is this theory too:

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/2840/mfing-global

Why I buy physical gold and silver.  More hoarding commencing…

Been reading “Too Big To Fail” and the biggest nugget I have personally garnered so far (besides that Paulson TOTALLY allowed Lehman to go down in flames much like I always assumed) is that you can not ever trust anything said by the government or media. Now, I already knew that but wow – this really pushes that home. Yikes. It’s not like I ever felt the banks were 100% responsible because everyone had their hands in the cheap money pie, and I have about 4 blog posts in my head about mortgages, and banks and F the government AND idiot and unethical borrowers but we’ll see if I blast those out anytime soon or just let it simmer down inside. But grrrrrr. People that blame the banks and mortgage brokers solely for all the problems in their world need to get a fn clue (after looking in the mirror.)

Ok, cleansing deep breath….turning on my Zen music and finding my Chi (or is that Chew…bacca?! :) )

Another thing the book has done is make me re-evaluate my stock portfolio a bit. I have a 401k account that I check in on monthly but my stock account I watch daily. Not that I am a day trader because I am not. Do not have the time or energy to do that anymore. And most of what I own are companies that I know of due to personally liking them or brand recognition or some such thing. I did take a flyer on 2 small positions at the beginning of the year on companies that were not in the above categories and so far they are doing well. My intention is to keep them for the year though and not long term investing like the rest. I consider myself an investor and not a trader, even though that’s the way more fun side of it :)

I made a couple of small day (really several days) trades earlier this year and did well. But then I bought a teeny 100 shs of Pandora hoping for a quick pop and missed. Lost just over a point before I quickly flushed it but that annoyed me. I knew better. I know Pandora is crap (from an investment perspective – have never tried the service) but I thought it would be fun…like the old days! Was hoping for a 3-5 point in 15-20 minute turnaround to put in my Jimmy Choo fund :) Oh well. Wasn’t a big loss in cash but VERY annoyed by the fact that I did it even knowing 100% in my gut that it was a bad call. Like – totally knew it. Grr. Dummy. So I nicknamed my stock account DUMMY (online you can have a nickname) until I feel less dumb. And I hate feeling dumb.

No, this current market is making me keep my money in the safer stocks for the time being. Not that they can’t go down, but I have a fair degree of certainly they will all come back just fine short of Armageddon…and then I guess I will just need my gold and guns. Companies like MCD, YUM, TIF, AXP, BRK (B), AMZN, AAPL, SBUX, BP, VLO and some others. I also bought some fairly distressed GE and MS a short while back which hasn’t done too much but I think long-term they will also be fine and might even buy more under 20 and 24 respectively.

I do own some BAC and C which both stress me out a bit since they are technically too big to fail and yet totally can. But that’s the gambling side of my account I guess. I’m flat on both of them right now so we will see how I feel if I see much red. Although, I do tend to think they will go up somewhat at least, it will just take some time. That feeling thing. BUT, by the time I finish “Too Big To Fail”, I might change my mind and scream SELL MORTIMER as I can’t push the button fast enough!

I recently bought a healthcare stock – which I normally stay away far away from and also have a couple AG and commodity play stocks. I got rid of my ETF’s (except SLV) as I really prefer to own the underlying securities. ETFs are boring an way too many layers of even more people involved that you can’t trust. Though I do pat myself on my back for selling my USL at almost the very top of WTI prices. Genius oil speculator without even knowing it! I prefer to own the underlying asset in SLV too (and do) but I bought my shares at 17 so I’ll just keep it for now. Plus hoarding physical silver takes up a lot more space than gold so its OK to have both real and paper in that :) unless of course you believe all the conspiracy theories about silver (like the gold conspiracy theories) which honestly, after you read about the banks, are harder to just pushaw away. A good conspiracy theory keeps you on your toes anyway.

Yes, this investor went more Scrooge McDuck than Gordon Gekko during May and now June. Getting kinda ugly out there…and part of me says well, the fastest way to get Obama out of office is to keep it rather ugly out there so who knows….

From the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting. Being live blogged by the WSJ: http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2011/04/30/live-blog-the-berkshire-hathaway-annual-meeting/#

“Gold bugs, don’t read this:

Buffett harps on and on about gold. He says it has no utility, and about how silly people are who are getting in now — when gold prices are near nominal highs. “There’s no question that rising prices…can start affecting behavior,” Buffett said. “People like to get in on things that are rising in prices. Over time, it has not been the way to get rich.”

He’s listing all the things he’d rather have than all the gold in the world, because all you can do with gold is admire it or, as he says, “fondle it.”

Munger repeats what he’s said previously that gold investors are preying on fears. Gold is considered a safe haven investment, because investors tend to flock to buying gold assets when they’re freaked out about the health of other assets and the economy.”

Umm…duh! :) I love you Warren but I want my gold and silver exactly so that I can fondle it on demand! And keep the value safely in a lock box and not a company’s balance sheet. It’s called a hedge for a reason. Also I want to do this someday:

Another hero :)

But yes, it is at an all-time high (well, not if adjusted for inflation – we are still way off of that number which is something to keep in mind) so it does seem silly to jump in with 2 feet now. Except that financial experts and the media have been saying that since gold hit $1000 (2009.) So who knows. It’s called speculation for a reason. And I happily did not sell any after all the “experts” said it will go down from here last summer (when it hit $1250.) It’s now over the big $1500 mark. Plus I do think that China especially is playing a huge role in its run up so it’s not just a bunch of crazed gold bugs stocking their underground bunkers with gold coins, guns and MREs (not that there’s anything wrong with that.) Between China and India, you have a lot of new money going into the purchase of it. And both cultures value it highly. So it’s not quite the same market conditions as when it went crazy in the late 70s only to crash (ish).

And yes, most of the ads for it are definitley aimed at cashing in on people’s fears. Kinda like the earthquake & flood insurers advertising after a disaster (cough *Geico*) or oil traders after some backwards Middle Eastern country has an uprising. Or flu shot ads at the drugstore right before flu season. As long as investors (buyers) understand that, it’s not a bad thing. And if they don’t understand it, they should keep their money safely in a barely-interest paying CD.

So Mr. Buffett, I love you and trust you. But I will happily disagree with you on this. I believe you don’t like technology companies much either (you and Bill must argue about that one!) So that’s why you are ONE of my investments but not all.

But please…stay alive for 50 more years. We do need you!!!

Profile

Penny-pinching poultry keeps majority of his fortune in gold coins stored in massive “money bin” high in the hills above Duckburg; also invests in pearls, gems, other “hoardables.” Still refers to August 15th, 1971 –the day President Nixon took the U.S. off the gold standard– as “Black Sunday.” Habitually marks anniversary by calculating net worth as percentage of the value of the gold in Fort Knox (21.4%). Famously frugal: Once fought a bear over a $2 jar of honey, never gives to charity, still has the first dime he ever earned. Nonetheless, known to sprout the occasional wild feather and jet off to exotic locales on ill-conceived “treasure-hunts” with troublesome great-nephews –and presumed heirs– Huey, Dewey and Louie. Featured in Disney’s Uncle Scrooge comic books and cartoons.

Fast Facts

* Once traveled back in time to use an expired coupon
* Takes his exercise by swimming in gold

This rules so much :) http://www.forbes.com/lists/fictional15/2011/profile/scrooge-mcduck.html#

Whether you believe the conspiracy theory or not (not entirely impossible if you ask me…) – this should make you chuckle out loud. And you can learn a thing or two :)

The Hunt Brothers failed at this years ago but this is a different game and field. Plus I LOVE a good conspiracy theory!

…because I love gold AND only in the will-never-be-repeated-ultra-cool early-to-mid 60s could you get away with a movie character named Pussy Galore that’s NOT in a porn movie…

Gold spot closed at $1269.20 today. December’s contracts closed even higher ($1271.70). That puts it well over it’s previous high. Silver closed over $20. Gold closing above it’s previous resistance is a big deal if you are chart/technical trader. I am not. I used to love to trade commodities but it will give you gray hair and an ulcer. This is what makes it both fun and unhealthy long term :)

I have been buying gold and silver as an investment for years now. I don’t buy the ETFs, I buy the physical coins. I do buy mining stocks too but for the metals – I want something I can hold. I’m not a crazed goldbug (although I love a good government conspiracy theory!) but I’m a firm believer in wanting the physical metal in my possession (well..at least in my safe deposit box’s possession) and not in the form of a piece of paper. Plus then you can take it out and play in it like Scrooge McDuck

I started buying gold and silver coins a long time ago. A few a year – not like I own Fort Knox or anything (THAT would be cool!) I like the reality of it. I can hold it in my hand. And I can sell it anytime. Stocks are fun, and I am a huge believer in the capital markets, but they don’t have this exact quality. I do not buy coins for their numismatic qualities – I know less than nothing about coin collecting. I buy for the pure commodity of it. But I stick with gold and silver. No platinum (except jewelry!!), copper, palladium, etc.

For sure, gold has had a HUGE run up. Many nay-sayers believe it will come back down and point you to the run-ups of the past. “It’s topped out, will crash, blah, blah.” But this is a different world and economy that we live in than 10 years ago. Than in the 70s. China and India are fast becoming very large economies with a growing upper and middle class that has disposable income and culturally they both love owning gold.

At sushi lunch a few months back, a retired lawyer was talking to my husband and me about the economy. He scoffed at gold buyers because he said the only reason the price went up is because of the paranoia of goldbugs over the economy. When I pointed out that the fact that China also just started allowing, and even advocating, its citizens to buy and own gold, all he had to say was “oh…really?” Yeah. Not just for the Mulders or Lone Gunmen out there anymore…

But yes, I’m sure plenty of people bought into gold for economic fear reasons. It has been the safe haven hedge for a long time now. And also to ride the wave up as retail buyers tend to do after fund managers take huge positions in anything. You can tell from all the ads for gold on TV, the radio, online that it’s aimed at the little guy now. I’m also sure there was a lot of short covering today after it blew through previous resistance of $1260. But it’s simply a different market (and world) now too. More buyers equals more demand.

Might it go back down from today’s newly-minted (see what I did there?!=geek on multiple levels!) high – likely. Funds take profits. Fact of life. Might it create new highs after that? Probably. (see…I can totally be a money-honey on CNBC too – never say it WILL, only it MIGHT or COULD!) So far the overseas markets are flat – keeping spot as it’s high. Of course, in commodities this changes fast so who knows where it will be when I wake up.

Oh, but please do not liquidate your portfolio or take out a loan to buy it (actual questions I get asked as our company’s 401k administrator…) It’s still speculative. This isn’t the California gold rush people (see why I like my 49ers!) But if you want to hedge your stocks or other investments, I personally have always felt it was a good one. I’m like Yukon Cornelius – always looking :) (totally love the song Silver and Gold too!)

And what will happen if the Republicans don’t get the little known detail that was “slipped” into Obama’s HEALTHCARE (?) bill that will require brokers to file 1099s for gold and silver bullion/coins purchases over $600 scratched? Who knows? But I don’t see it slowing down any demand. Just might create a shadow market.

I don’t trade my gold like my stock account (so usually only check open and close prices but today was a hot day.) I buy it and hold it like my 401k. And someday, I might sell it. So I watch these daily ups and downs and listen to the analysts dissect it and just smile and think to myself that I am happy I started buying it before it was “the rage” with a little “well done” pat on my back. Husband used to think my “little hobby” was silly and likely a waste of money that could be invested elsewhere. Then recently a very successful investment banker friend of his told him he does the same thing. Now I’m not so silly after all. Pfft. Men…

Now if I could just build my panic/safe room, I could move it from my bank’s safety deposit box to my house and play it in…just like Scrooge McDuck… ;)

My father used to read me those Disney stories as a kid and Scrooge McDuck was always one of my favorite Disney characters – maybe we are formed from a young age :)