a99kitten's Musings

I blog about a WHOLE LOT of stuff :)

This week is the one year anniversary of the market melting down due to the rona. Or more accurately, the media and politicians’ reaction to the rona. March 18th was the low I believe and we struggled a but but DID continue to go up from there.

I did well in my accounts over the year. Although I think a blind chimp did well in his/hr accounts this past year. People who never invested before in their lives made money in their newly opened Robinhood accounts.

Altho, this past month – meh. Not sure how those same RHers have done in this chop. Or if they gave any thought to their tax implications due soon. Surprise!

Biden has been a pile to stinky crap for the market. Certainly cannot lay all the blame at his feet (although since Libs liked to do that with Trump – I’ll go ahead.) But not knowing what the tax issues will be (though we all know they will raise taxes so F Biden), the still inconsistent state reopening issues, etc. has been a giant pile of suck.

I mean – what good is a vaccine if we all still have to wear masks everywhere? HOW STUPID IS THAT? If I still have to wear a mask, you can keep your vaccine. F off.

Seriously considering cashing up a lot and waiting out the next month or quarter or even through summer. Do small trades, or maybe add to long term positions but this chop fest over the last 4-6 weeks has been sucky.

Trading was fun this past year. Even on the stressful, down days – it had a better feel to it. Hopeful to get out of the “pandemic”. But now that we got to the near-end – a vaccine – the magic jab! – it’s still crap. Actually – worse crap. Biden is not hopeful. Biden is not Presidential. So we have no optimism in our leadership. That’s pretty suck. And please do not get me started on Gavin.

These past 2 months have really been not fun. Even on the good days with good trades – always the feeling in the back of my head of “how fast will this turn?” And in a period of time where we are enforced to not have fun, that really sucks.

Once this quarter ends, let’s see if things turn around a bit. But I have to say – I do not think it will. Eventually. But not yet.

F Biden. F China.

I love the idea of Bitcoin/cryptocurrency. LOVE it. Mostly because I love the idea of keeping big government out of anything and everything.

Does that mean I don’t believe oversight is needed? No. While I hate big government, I am also well aware that humans are retarded and most of them require supervision. That pretty destroys the ideals of Libertarians. You need common sense and decency for it to work. Sadly…that is not common.

I started buying crypto in 2016. I bought a Ledger Nano to store it on. The whole idea of cold storage was you keep it it a drawer (or fire-proof safe) and it was safe from hackers, government, etc. Sure. Sounds great. Crypto was finance embracing technology. Store your money *on* tech.

I take it out and check it every few months. Every single time there is some update that takes forever and I always wonder what if this thing just dies? It’s electronic – of course it will. That’s the nature of tech – you need the new upgrade every 2 years. Just ask Apple.

But the reviews for Ledger are always good. And I have my root words stored away. Because NOTHING says top tier, cutting edge technolgy and the future of money than having to keep your recovery words stored on a FN piece of paper someplace so it can’t be hacked. Sigh.

Today – open up Nano S. Move my ETC because I want to sell it. Get rid of shitcoins. Well – that transaction still shows pending after 8 hours. Fun times.

Also want to move some LTC. Decide to sell some to buy other crypto. LTC is a shifty crypto at best. Move some. THEN Ledger says I need to download/install their update to complete moving. Huh? Fine. Quick download/install. Plug Nano back in – the screen that you need to enter your passcode. Black. WTF? Then it comes back in spotty illuminated fashion – I am able to see it just enough to enter my passcode. After that screen – the illumination is JUST FINE. Only the most important passcode section is basically dead AFTER THE LEDGE UPGRADE. I try to complete the transaction but it says “OH IT MIGHT HAVE FAILED TRY AGAIN.” When I try – the passcode screen – black. DED.

Go online – search for issues about this. Yep – dead. You can order a new wallet. Or use an online one to recover your crypto BUT (and all warnings were strong and in capital letters) if you use an online wallet, you will need to enter your recovery words and they can be stolen, hacked, don’t trust the web, don’t trust online, don’t trust your computer – use a computer you only use or this!, etc etc etc.

So I need to order a new unit (which I did), or use an online wallet, to recover my money sitting in the ether USING MY PIECE OF PAPER WITH MY RECOVERY WORDS ON IT WITH MY PENCIL. Stored in the real world. Kind of like…my $20 bills would be….

You know….gonna start hoarding gold coins. F it.

What an insane week in the stock market (also 3 day blizzard.) I mean…it’s been a bit nuts since the crash in March but this week has been bananas.

I do love this stuff. And kinda hate it – mostly because I am so tired. lol I’ve been interested in this stuff since I was 19 years old. So I guess I am a nerd. But instead if caring about video games etc, I care about Wall Street junk. Well…obviously I care about some traditional nerd stuff: Star Wars, Marvel/DC, Star Wars, Disney, and oh yeah…Star Wars.

But I think what I hate the most is NONE of my friends care. I have no one to jibber jabber about this crap with. I mean…my ex and chit chat about it the most but beyond that – it’s a meme to people and they don’t really care. Weird. Because it effects you. A lot. Even if you do not realize it. But ok.

I’d say I need new/more friends but who has time for that. I have to trade! (and shovel snow…and collect Star Wars stuff.)

Finished my 2020 P/L today along with my weekly P/L. Needed to finalize 2020 tax planning. Always a fun Saturday when taxes are involved. Plus did some crypto trades today (24/7…yay…sonofa…)

Did well in 2020. But I think a blind monkey just banging on his keyboard could have made money this year. But I’m very thankful to have done as well as I did. Of course, now I am convinced of a market crash – like everyone – which is why it won’t happen quite yet I suppose. But need to stay on my toes. This week beat my 2nd best week last year by $90 (realized trades) – lol. I’ll take it. Did a LOT of trades. My long term positions did well for the most part. I did sell some $TSLA because it’s just. so . high.

Supposedly, the next 2 weeks are traditionally awful (although I have not looked up those stats.) And monthly opex is Friday and that always seems to mess with stuff. So we’ll see how it goes. Add a few crypto stock plays in AH on Friday on a hunch – hoping I’m not smacked upside the head on those.

Crypto trading is fun. Although only doing small trades. I still had my BTC, ETH, LTC and XRP from 2017 buys. All that is in cold storage. HODL! Luckily, I also started building a trading position in 2018 in BTC and ETH after the crash so I sold a 1/3 portion of that BTC this week to free up some trading cash. And have been buying BCH and OXT. Just sold all of my BCH for a nice win. Adding to OXT here.

Sadly, I should have been adding a lot more to my ETH. Seems like it can do well % wise this year if the crypto run continues.

…have a bizarre sense of humor.

Friday and today were absolutely excellent trading days for me. My trading account hit an all-time high today. Excellent moves/sales in TWTR and GPRO calls bought last week, sold LC also from last week and sold my UWTI position +5% that I was down 20% just a short time ago. And I jumped in and out of the monster that is TWLO for a very nice win. Was feeling pretty happy….so naturally AH decided to take me down a peg…

I bought some HAIN calls last week (have had a small stock position in my 401k for a long time) as it started running. I *ALMOST* sold the position as a quick in/out trade on Friday as it really heated up but then didn’t. Got greedy and thought maybe they really DO announce an acquisition over the weekend. And then when nothing was announced – almost sold AGAIN this AM. Still up on position. But nooooooo….the greed devil on my shoulder said “hey they are September calls…hold them a little longer….” Sigh…It’s a small position but make some VERY annoyed. Since I ignored myself TWICE to sell. Gah.

HAIN came out after hours today and announced reporting/financial issues. Always a winner. Stock tanked about 25%. Yay. I will likely add to my LT position at these levels (maybe) but those calls should be nice and worthless. Grrrr. Hate that greed devil.

The stock market gods giveth, the stock market gods taketh away. Back to work to make that back….

Have been swamped with a couple new clients plus tax time so hadn’t looked at my trading account quarterly P/L until this morning. I knew it would be bad, but ouch. I think was a good case for ignorance is bliss. Sigh… – 10% for the quarter. 10.3 to be exact.

This is my first losing quarter since the 1st quarter of 2012. Which I guess is good but ugh. The really dumb thing is up until mid-March, I was solidly up. I place blame at the feet of Janet Yellen! Of course, my insistence at continuing to play when the game changed was very dumb.

Looking at my trades from the quarter, I **really** owe Elon Musk a big hug as I made a lot trading TSLA. CEO crush confirmed :)

Tesla-logo

And my second biggest gains are tied – trading PLUG and precious metals (both silver and gold in various forms.) This further solidifies my Uncle Scrooge love as well ;)

Another hero :)

Another hero :)

Biggest loser? AMZN calls held through ER. Ugh. First time they let me down though so I guess that I can’t complain too much. 2nd biggest loser? AAPL. I made so much money trading AAPL calls in the past. It was so fun. The fun has sure been sucked out of that stock though. I am making myself a promise – NO MORE AAPL! I have my long term common paying me dividends (and that’s about all it does lately) but no more trading it. It’s a slug. And that’s insulting to slugs. Oh well. My fault. Tim Cook didn’t make me buy the options.

Had I listened to chessNwine (over at iBankCoin), I would have been less invested over this time period. But the gambler in me couldn’t help it. Luckily I never play too large in options since you can literally lose 100% pretty quickly (quickly when playing in the momo stocks anyway.) I know I’ll make it back. But I hate when I feel stupid. And there was more than 1 occasion (a lot more) when I KNEW I should sell something but the greedy devil inside me said “hold out for a little more”. And then POOF. Just like letting it all ride on black and the ball lands on red. Stupid. I get mad at myself when I do stupid things and KNOW I know better. Grrrr.

A Jedi uses the Force for knowledge and defense…so I WILL make it back and then some. But all I can think right now is I should be adding to gains, not making up losses. *shakesfist*

Just calculated my Q4 and year-end trading account returns. Not too bad. Overall I certainly did well but we were (are) in a spaztastic bull market so can’t take all that much credit for it. And I did not make my goal of a double due to some dumb trading errors so that’s a drag.

For Q4, I had a 10.7% return. Had it not been for November, probably would have been much better. This quarter my biggest wins were (big surprise) in momo stocks: $TWTR (seriously the gift that keeps on giving in December), $SCTY, $GOGO, $NFLX, $WYNN and $AMZN. But then also in $AAPL and $ISRG (went short on that which I never do so that was fun.) Also did well in Chinese solars stocks that should just be called roulette.

Biggest loser was hands down, no questions asked $NUGT. But since that should also be called roulette, what are you going to do. Since it was a huge winner in previous quarters, I won’t complain. Too much anyway ;) This thing really should be in my don’t ever, ever trade this again category. But I haven’t put it in that bucket yet.

For the year, I was up 39.5%. A good year for sure. I hope I can do as well next year. I’ve done decently on sticking to my “take profits” rule but did leave some money on the table in $TSLA. But I think I’ll get that back. Did OK on my “stop trading so many options” rule. BUT, besides 2 initial buys/sells on IPO day and some sitting in my long-term account, I’ve traded $TWTR only through options. And done very well. So that will likely keep me in the casino.

Still taking most ideas from inside the 12631 trading room. Followed @chessNwine in pretty much all of his longs. I don’t go short much though (other than his $ISRG which worked GREAT!) I followed more of RaginCajun’s quick strikes this quarter and ideas from other members that worked out quite well for the most part. Much smarter market people in there than me :) Plus I’ve gotten some great long term ideas from Chess that are working very well in my 401k.

So I’m ready for 2014 to be another good trading year. Who knows what the heck will happen in the market but I think being in 12631 gives me a definite advantage. I invest in my 401k. I trade in my trading account. I do not confuse the 2. I will still keep my trading account relatively small. I will still make my quarterly physical gold and silver purchases. I will not trade Bitcoin. And I will still keep most of my money in cash or private investments. Kitten is generally conservative and will keep it that way.

A fool and his money are lucky enough to get together in the first place. ~ Gordon Gekko

Tesla-logo

Q3 has drawn to a close and I must say that I am pretty happy with how it went. And glad I did not sell in May and go away. Well…actually…I could have gone away at the end of May and then come back in July. June trading was awful. But that was soooo last quarter.

To be honest, I checked my numbers 3 times to make sure they were right. And they were. For Q3 I was +17.7%. Not so bad at all. In looking at most successful trades, a lot of them were calls. This is actually bad since I have been trying to limit my options trades and this won’t encourage that attempt at a new behavior ;)

I made some excellent trades in (and out and back in again) pure momo names. TSLA? Check. NFLX? Check. YELP? Check. Plus a few more of the usual suspects. Although — my biggest and best trade was in a former momo — AAPL (calls…doh!) I happened to own some calls *before* Carl Icahn’s tweet (aka pure luck.) I owe him a fruit basket of apples :)

Apple-logo

My most absolute worst trade was in another momo – SODA. Ugh. Should have known better on that one though. 2nd worst trade? UVXY. I don’t think I need to say anything more about that one. Those ETFs are garbage. But oh well. I made a note next to it in my spreadsheet “Never, ever trade this again stupid” and highlighted it.

I also started taking more ideas from inside the 12631 trading room. I have typically followed chessNwine in all of his longs. I don’t short much at all though. And this past quarter I followed a few more of RaginCajun’s quick strikes and ideas from other members.

I also was able to take advantage of a few stocks that got beaten down on a single news event and make money on the quick pop up. BA, LL, WMT. This is actually why I keep CNBC on during the day as I wouldn’t notice the news fast enough otherwise.

I’ve also been trying to take more profits quicker. I promised myself that I was going to do that in my trading account. Stocks/companies that I believe in and want to keep – buy them for my 401k. But my trading account is for trading. I just don’t trust this market. So I’d rather take some profits and maybe miss out on another move up than lose them and be in a losing trade on a quick retrace. And you can always join back in if you’ve got a runner. I’ve done that a few times in the Chinese solars lately. In and out and back in (and out) again! (mmmmm….now I want a double double with cheese.)

Although what’s funny about that strategy is that I’ve not sold when a stock turns on me and then had it come right back in a day or 2 (or sometimes later that same day.) My semi-blind trust in the exuberant market working in my favor. It can hurt me too (SODA) but has frankly worked more than not so…

Of course as I say all of this, Washington is doing its darn best to wreck the 4Q. But we’ll see. I think by finding selective stocks and trading quickly, money can still be made. At least for now.

“Work smarter, not harder” ~~ Scrooge McDuck

2nd quarter is in the books. It’s crazy to think the year is halfway over. Zoinks. 180 days until Christmas!!

I just did a quick calculation and for Q2 2013 I am up +13% in my trading account. I say once again not too shabby at all. Sadly, I would have been up more if we ended the quarter at the end of May but that’s my fault. Ugh. But again keeping in mind that my trading account is small as I consider it more of my gambling/learning/shopping account. And through May we have had a great bull run.

My biggest win by far for the quarter was trading TSLA. Sadly I wanted to buy and hold in my 401k as well as trade it but never did. When it was in the low 30s! Doh. Oh well. I day traded it with everyone else so it’s not like I was genius. Sure was as a fun run though :) I’m still holding a 1/4 position. Second biggest win was definitely in solar. Mostly SCTY calls before earnings, but then trading in and out of FSLR and SCTY. Again…sadly though…I am still holding 1/2 positions from higher prices in both so they might be my sad face positions next quarter. Also did very well with NUGT and DUST. Consolation trades for my physical gold. But that’s a long term holding and like Uncle Scrooge, I will just keep hoarding! ;) I know most people hate gold. Maybe that’s the reason I like it.

scrooge-mcduck

Ironically my biggest loser was DUST. Sold my last bit of it for a loss right before it skyrocketed. Dope. But I’ve learned my lesson there. Other big losers were all option ER plays. While I’ve apparently not learned some lessons, I have learned to limit downside risk if deciding to gamble on ER.

Like the 1st Q, besides my TSLA and ER trades, I am still basically following trades in the 12631 trading room made by chessNwine and RaginCajun and a few other ideas thrown out by other traders in the room. I have way, way more winners than losers by doing this.

But my biggest mistake, that I KEEP making and ***really*** need to deprogram myself of, is the feeling that I will miss a run so don’t sell when I have a winner. Then some stupid headline comes out or some bad economic data point and the market tanks taking my wins with it. I am really, really, really, not being very disciplined and I think I would cry if I looked at what I *could* have made but let go due to greed/stupidity/whatever. Now, true, sometimes I do get the wins and they do run further but I am determined to make myself learn this lesson. I keep a spreadsheet of all my trades and mark the ones that I feel were failed whether they turn to losses, flat or even still positive but not as much as they were. I label them *stupid*.

My gut ends up being right a lot, but I don’t listen to it enough. Sigh.

This story is sickening. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-05/obama-budget-calls-for-cap-on-romney-sized-iras.html

“Under current rules, some wealthy individuals are able to accumulate many millions of dollars in these accounts, substantially more than is needed to fund reasonable levels of retirement saving,” the statement said.

Who exactly are YOU to say what is a reasonable level of retirement savings for me? You don’t know my life, my responsibilities and IT’S MY MONEY. That I worked for and saved and invested smartly, not spending it, so that I have it for me and mine later.

I am the one working my butt off for years to make sure I have enough because unlike government stooges, I don’t have a tax-payer funded pension plan and health benefits to live off of for the rest of my days.

For every “Romney-sized” retirement account, there are tons more of “regular” people who socked money away for years and watched it grow. Doing nothing wrong. Doing the right thing which is saving for their retirement so they are NOT dependent on the government or anyone else.

And since there is *NO* way Social Security, that I pay into all my life (and might as well burn the money in the driveway for all the good it will do me), will be around to help me, shouldn’t I be doing everything I can to make sure I (and my family) will be OK?

I think the thing that makes me sick the most is this class warfare rhetoric is used over and over by a government that spends so much more than it can take in and sees nothing wrong with it. Just tax people more. And more. And more. Take. Take. Take. All the while these same guys are SO corrupt.

And people who have no intention on saving since they know the government “safety nets” will take care of them, and have no drive to change their situation (in no way can you argue that everyone wants to work as hard. No. Way.) are the ones who vote these idiots in. Repeatedly. Because why wouldn’t you?

The government continues to take steps that make being successful a bad thing. To strive to be successful is becoming more of a detriment since you can just live off your fellow citizen’s hard work while working much less.

This is not the American Way.