a99kitten's Musings

Have been swamped with a couple new clients plus tax time so hadn’t looked at my trading account quarterly P/L until this morning. I knew it would be bad, but ouch. I think was a good case for ignorance is bliss. Sigh… – 10% for the quarter. 10.3 to be exact.

This is my first losing quarter since the 1st quarter of 2012. Which I guess is good but ugh. The really dumb thing is up until mid-March, I was solidly up. I place blame at the feet of Janet Yellen! Of course, my insistence at continuing to play when the game changed was very dumb.

Looking at my trades from the quarter, I **really** owe Elon Musk a big hug as I made a lot trading TSLA. CEO crush confirmed :)

And my second biggest gains are tied – trading PLUG and precious metals (both silver and gold in various forms.) This further solidifies my Uncle Scrooge love as well ;)

Another hero :)

Biggest loser? AMZN calls held through ER. Ugh. First time they let me down though so I guess that I can’t complain too much. 2nd biggest loser? AAPL. I made so much money trading AAPL calls in the past. It was so fun. The fun has sure been sucked out of that stock though. I am making myself a promise – NO MORE AAPL! I have my long term common paying me dividends (and that’s about all it does lately) but no more trading it. It’s a slug. And that’s insulting to slugs. Oh well. My fault. Tim Cook didn’t make me buy the options.

Had I listened to chessNwine (over at iBankCoin), I would have been less invested over this time period. But the gambler in me couldn’t help it. Luckily I never play too large in options since you can literally lose 100% pretty quickly (quickly when playing in the momo stocks anyway.) I know I’ll make it back. But I hate when I feel stupid. And there was more than 1 occasion (a lot more) when I KNEW I should sell something but the greedy devil inside me said “hold out for a little more”. And then POOF. Just like letting it all ride on black and the ball lands on red. Stupid. I get mad at myself when I do stupid things and KNOW I know better. Grrrr.

A Jedi uses the Force for knowledge and defense…so I WILL make it back and then some. But all I can think right now is I should be adding to gains, not making up losses. *shakesfist*

Just calculated my Q4 and year-end trading account returns. Not too bad. Overall I certainly did well but we were (are) in a spaztastic bull market so can’t take all that much credit for it. And I did not make my goal of a double due to some dumb trading errors so that’s a drag.

For Q4, I had a 10.7% return. Had it not been for November, probably would have been much better. This quarter my biggest wins were (big surprise) in momo stocks: $TWTR (seriously the gift that keeps on giving in December), $SCTY, $GOGO, $NFLX, $WYNN and $AMZN. But then also in $AAPL and $ISRG (went short on that which I never do so that was fun.) Also did well in Chinese solars stocks that should just be called roulette.

Biggest loser was hands down, no questions asked $NUGT. But since that should also be called roulette, what are you going to do. Since it was a huge winner in previous quarters, I won’t complain. Too much anyway ;) This thing really should be in my don’t ever, ever trade this again category. But I haven’t put it in that bucket yet.

For the year, I was up 39.5%. A good year for sure. I hope I can do as well next year. I’ve done decently on sticking to my “take profits” rule but did leave some money on the table in $TSLA. But I think I’ll get that back. Did OK on my “stop trading so many options” rule. BUT, besides 2 initial buys/sells on IPO day and some sitting in my long-term account, I’ve traded $TWTR only through options. And done very well. So that will likely keep me in the casino.

Still taking most ideas from inside the 12631 trading room. Followed @chessNwine in pretty much all of his longs. I don’t go short much though (other than his $ISRG which worked GREAT!) I followed more of RaginCajun’s quick strikes this quarter and ideas from other members that worked out quite well for the most part. Much smarter market people in there than me :) Plus I’ve gotten some great long term ideas from Chess that are working very well in my 401k.

So I’m ready for 2014 to be another good trading year. Who knows what the heck will happen in the market but I think being in 12631 gives me a definite advantage. I invest in my 401k. I trade in my trading account. I do not confuse the 2. I will still keep my trading account relatively small. I will still make my quarterly physical gold and silver purchases. I will not trade Bitcoin. And I will still keep most of my money in cash or private investments. Kitten is generally conservative and will keep it that way.

A fool and his money are lucky enough to get together in the first place. ~ Gordon Gekko

Q3 has drawn to a close and I must say that I am pretty happy with how it went. And glad I did not sell in May and go away. Well…actually…I could have gone away at the end of May and then come back in July. June trading was awful. But that was soooo last quarter.

To be honest, I checked my numbers 3 times to make sure they were right. And they were. For Q3 I was +17.7%. Not so bad at all. In looking at most successful trades, a lot of them were calls. This is actually bad since I have been trying to limit my options trades and this won’t encourage that attempt at a new behavior ;)

I made some excellent trades in (and out and back in again) pure momo names. TSLA? Check. NFLX? Check. YELP? Check. Plus a few more of the usual suspects. Although — my biggest and best trade was in a former momo — AAPL (calls…doh!) I happened to own some calls *before* Carl Icahn’s tweet (aka pure luck.) I owe him a fruit basket of apples :)

My most absolute worst trade was in another momo – SODA. Ugh. Should have known better on that one though. 2nd worst trade? UVXY. I don’t think I need to say anything more about that one. Those ETFs are garbage. But oh well. I made a note next to it in my spreadsheet “Never, ever trade this again stupid” and highlighted it.

I also started taking more ideas from inside the 12631 trading room. I have typically followed chessNwine in all of his longs. I don’t short much at all though. And this past quarter I followed a few more of RaginCajun’s quick strikes and ideas from other members.

I also was able to take advantage of a few stocks that got beaten down on a single news event and make money on the quick pop up. BA, LL, WMT. This is actually why I keep CNBC on during the day as I wouldn’t notice the news fast enough otherwise.

I’ve also been trying to take more profits quicker. I promised myself that I was going to do that in my trading account. Stocks/companies that I believe in and want to keep – buy them for my 401k. But my trading account is for trading. I just don’t trust this market. So I’d rather take some profits and maybe miss out on another move up than lose them and be in a losing trade on a quick retrace. And you can always join back in if you’ve got a runner. I’ve done that a few times in the Chinese solars lately. In and out and back in (and out) again! (mmmmm….now I want a double double with cheese.)

Although what’s funny about that strategy is that I’ve not sold when a stock turns on me and then had it come right back in a day or 2 (or sometimes later that same day.) My semi-blind trust in the exuberant market working in my favor. It can hurt me too (SODA) but has frankly worked more than not so…

Of course as I say all of this, Washington is doing its darn best to wreck the 4Q. But we’ll see. I think by finding selective stocks and trading quickly, money can still be made. At least for now.

“Work smarter, not harder” ~~ Scrooge McDuck

2nd quarter is in the books. It’s crazy to think the year is halfway over. Zoinks. 180 days until Christmas!!

I just did a quick calculation and for Q2 2013 I am up +13% in my trading account. I say once again not too shabby at all. Sadly, I would have been up more if we ended the quarter at the end of May but that’s my fault. Ugh. But again keeping in mind that my trading account is small as I consider it more of my gambling/learning/shopping account. And through May we have had a great bull run.

My biggest win by far for the quarter was trading TSLA. Sadly I wanted to buy and hold in my 401k as well as trade it but never did. When it was in the low 30s! Doh. Oh well. I day traded it with everyone else so it’s not like I was genius. Sure was as a fun run though :) I’m still holding a 1/4 position. Second biggest win was definitely in solar. Mostly SCTY calls before earnings, but then trading in and out of FSLR and SCTY. Again…sadly though…I am still holding 1/2 positions from higher prices in both so they might be my sad face positions next quarter. Also did very well with NUGT and DUST. Consolation trades for my physical gold. But that’s a long term holding and like Uncle Scrooge, I will just keep hoarding! ;) I know most people hate gold. Maybe that’s the reason I like it.

Ironically my biggest loser was DUST. Sold my last bit of it for a loss right before it skyrocketed. Dope. But I’ve learned my lesson there. Other big losers were all option ER plays. While I’ve apparently not learned some lessons, I have learned to limit downside risk if deciding to gamble on ER.

Like the 1st Q, besides my TSLA and ER trades, I am still basically following trades in the 12631 trading room made by chessNwine and RaginCajun and a few other ideas thrown out by other traders in the room. I have way, way more winners than losers by doing this.

But my biggest mistake, that I KEEP making and ***really*** need to deprogram myself of, is the feeling that I will miss a run so don’t sell when I have a winner. Then some stupid headline comes out or some bad economic data point and the market tanks taking my wins with it. I am really, really, really, not being very disciplined and I think I would cry if I looked at what I *could* have made but let go due to greed/stupidity/whatever. Now, true, sometimes I do get the wins and they do run further but I am determined to make myself learn this lesson. I keep a spreadsheet of all my trades and mark the ones that I feel were failed whether they turn to losses, flat or even still positive but not as much as they were. I label them *stupid*.

My gut ends up being right a lot, but I don’t listen to it enough. Sigh.

This story is sickening. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-05/obama-budget-calls-for-cap-on-romney-sized-iras.html

“Under current rules, some wealthy individuals are able to accumulate many millions of dollars in these accounts, substantially more than is needed to fund reasonable levels of retirement saving,” the statement said.

Who exactly are YOU to say what is a reasonable level of retirement savings for me? You don’t know my life, my responsibilities and IT’S MY MONEY. That I worked for and saved and invested smartly, not spending it, so that I have it for me and mine later.

I am the one working my butt off for years to make sure I have enough because unlike government stooges, I don’t have a tax-payer funded pension plan and health benefits to live off of for the rest of my days.

For every “Romney-sized” retirement account, there are tons more of “regular” people who socked money away for years and watched it grow. Doing nothing wrong. Doing the right thing which is saving for their retirement so they are NOT dependent on the government or anyone else.

And since there is *NO* way Social Security, that I pay into all my life (and might as well burn the money in the driveway for all the good it will do me), will be around to help me, shouldn’t I be doing everything I can to make sure I (and my family) will be OK?

I think the thing that makes me sick the most is this class warfare rhetoric is used over and over by a government that spends so much more than it can take in and sees nothing wrong with it. Just tax people more. And more. And more. Take. Take. Take. All the while these same guys are SO corrupt.

And people who have no intention on saving since they know the government “safety nets” will take care of them, and have no drive to change their situation (in no way can you argue that everyone wants to work as hard. No. Way.) are the ones who vote these idiots in. Repeatedly. Because why wouldn’t you?

The government continues to take steps that make being successful a bad thing. To strive to be successful is becoming more of a detriment since you can just live off your fellow citizen’s hard work while working much less.

This is not the American Way.

Just sold my leftover 1/2 position of TSLA up +10%. I almost sold it last week but liked Elon’s tweet so kept it.

I bought it in February at 39. Pretty sure I top-ticked it. Genius! When it crashed into the 34s I violated the “cut your losses before you bleed” rule because I knew it would go back up. I didn’t know how long it might take, but I knew (of couse assuming the market didn’t completely roll over that is.)

Sold my first half when it came back and I broke even on it. Kept the other half on because one thing I strongly believe is Trust in the Paypal Mafia. I know some of these guys personally and they are smart. I take their smarts over Zuckerburg smart any day of the week. Plus the FB seed money came from the Paypal mafia so there you go :)

I snicker repeatedly when I read people’s snarky comments on StockTwits or Twitter about LNKD or TSLA. Or even YELP. Or FB for that matter. But they don’t know these guys. And live to scalp $0.10 on trades.

I was **very** dumb in that I didn’t buy LNKD for my 401k last year instead of just trade in and out of it. But oh well. Shoulda, woulda, coulda. Not sure TSLA performs like that but who knows. Maybe I should sock some away in my 401k. It’s a technology company. Not an auto company. But I sold it out of my trading account this morning because a) it’s for trading and not keeping and b) pigs get slaughtered.

I like the first day of the quarter so far. No joke :)

Also…Elon looks like John Barrowman (Torchwood, Arrow) who I thought looked like Tom Cruise when I saw him at SDCC. Yet Elon looks nothing like Tom Cruise so…….weird! (it’s their chins!)

Elon Musk

John Barrowman

Tom Cruise

End of the quarter….how the heck are we 1/4 of the way through 2013 already???

I just did a quick calculation and for Q1 2013 I am up +14% in my trading account. I say not too shabby at all. Now keep in mind my trading account is small as I consider it more of my “gambling” account. Not like I’m making 14% off of a $100mm account. That would be cool though :) It’s also been during a crazy bull market run so who knows where that goes. Although I am more concerned about my conservative buy and hold 401k in that scenario.

My biggest win for the quarter was my decision to buy LNKD before earnings. Second biggest win was buying some NFLX options as it was on its first tear after it reported earnings. I *wish* I bought them before earnings!! Also did very well with RIMM (pre BBRY), RDN, UA, DNKN and FB.

Biggest loser *by far* was CALL. But I’ve learned my lesson there. Other losers were MOS, CRUS and WFM (lesson to NOT play ER.)

Besides my few gut calls or lucky ER plays, I am still basically following trades in the 12631 trading room made by chessNwine and a few by RaginCajun. I have way, way more winners than losers by doing this. As I said at the end of 2012, I will keep this successful action up.

I still have been a giant pile of fail in learning more about technical trading. Really is voodoo to me :) But I am pretty good at listening to my gut. And finding smart people to follow who practice this form of voodoo :) The trading room at iBC is full of them.

April 15th is my 1-year anniversary of leaving my “regular” job to work from home part-time while spending more time trading (best decision EVER.) I forget my actual 1 year anniversary date with iBC and 12631 but it’s right around the 15th. But you can be sure I will be renewing.

Yesterday I went over my trading account portfolio for the year. Up 21% for 2012. I’ll take that. I also put some long-term ideas into my 401k that Chess had profiled in his blog posts but I did not count those in the 21% (if I did, I would be up more as they are up nicely as well :) )

I left my full-time job in April (YAY! I liked you guys but YAY!!!) and have been working from home on a part-time basis since then. So after I left work, I also signed up for a premium trading service (had never done that before.) I had been following chessNwine and TheFly on twitter since mid-2011 but with my work schedule I didn’t have a lot of extra time to devote to trading other than my “gut” feelings (which is how I typically trade AND gamble :).) But I knew that once I left my job, and could devote some more time to trading, I wanted to try out their premium service(s).

I keep a chunk of my money in more conservative investments. And physical gold/silver in my quest to become Scrooge McDuck. And Star Wars collectibles (doh!) But I wanted to use my trading account as a learning tool. Also, my shopping fund. So I signed up in April 2012 and while I still don’t spend enough time on it (I need to do MOAR studying!), I have done pretty OK following on trades discussed in the 12631 trading room.

I’m usually pretty quiet in the trading room and don’t post much. LURKER! But it’s a pretty great group of guys (I say guys because I don’t see many names that indicate there are other girls but maybe they are quiet like me) and I am VERY glad that I signed up.

I typically just follow on Chess’ trades but also some of RaginCajun and The Fly’s. And also a few based on other traders in the room mentioning them or me finding them. But mostly – follower. I hope to be more of a contributor to the room this year but will still follow on the trades because #1 Rule: Don’t change successful actions!

So a big thank you to Chess, RC and The Fly for creating fantastic content, great products and a fun, interactive place for traders. Oh yeah…and profitable trades :)

Go here if you want join in the fun: http://ibankcoin.com/

Yesterday Maria Bartiromo interviewed the CEO of Morgan Stanley on CNBC – mostly about the Facebook IPO. One of the questions was about the people who bought it at the IPO price $38 but who were now down on it. His response was a fair one – those people that bought into the IPO hoping for the quick pop to make money off it were being naive or not buying it for the right reasons. I’m sure he meant they were being greedy day-trading bastards but used naive instead. And he went on to explain you want to see the buyers getting in on IPOs being long-term investors who believe in the long term outlook and value of the company. Which I agree with. I ranted…errr…blogged…about the people whining about their lack of lotto-style riches the Saturday after the IPO.

So now on Friday afternoon Maria plays that clip with his answer and then says something like “he had less than sympathetic words for people taking a bath on Facebook.”

Really Maria? Is THAT what he said? No…notsomuch.

Media…

Just read today’s NY Post story “Zuckers”. http://www.nypost.com/p/news/national/zuck_laughin_in_their_faces_YuKorcZA7fIl8DKPLksIhK

Honestly, the IPO did what it should do. How many times have I heard “it’s not fair that only insiders get the shares at such a low price before the huge pop when it IPOs.”? Or some such statements. This one didn’t pop 50% or 100%. That’s actually a good thing for the retail investor. The same ones who constantly complain that only the “big boys” on Wall Street make any money. Now you can follow the stock and decide on a good entry point if you are so inclined. Or were able to buy on the day of IPO at basically the same price.

The idea is you are buying the IPO stock to INVEST in the company. Do you think Facebook execs or bankers wanted a bunch of day traders scalping the stock all day? The point of an IPO is to generate cash for the company. Not you pal. So when it opens up 50%, that is money the company left on the table. And a poorly priced IPO. This is not 1998-1999. We don’t want that tech IPO bubble.

Should FB have left it at $34? Probably. But they looked at the interest and raised the price based on that. You can look for all sorts of nefarious, greedy banker (or Zuckerberg) motives but the fact is – that’s what you do. That’s your job as a banker working for the company. Get the best price for the company.

And the main street investors who are getting “cheated”? I’m sorry but comments like…

Retired nurse Teresa Ryan, who lives in Tudor City, bought 4,920 shares at $40.50, noting she made a killing on Apple stock. “I’m very psychic when it comes to stocks, I really am,” said Ryan. “I have no retirement, I have no pension, so I try to make money on the market.”

Queens chauffeur Thomas Gardner, whose home was just foreclosed on, could only afford $89 for two shares, which he hoped would eventually send his 9/11-born son to St. John’s University. “This is a good start,” Thomas said, beaming as he came out of a Midtown Charles Schwab office. “Everybody is hoping for something, so I’m jumping on this wagon. I have a good feeling.”

…are indicative of the hype built up by the media, which was off the charts. I mean seriously. You cannot blame Wall Street bankers or Facebook for the non-stop 24/7 coverage not only by the financial news stations (looking at you CNBC) but also just the normal news. Heard comments on the news like ” I wanted to sell it this morning and make enough to buy a car.” Umm. Yeah.

Will the same bankers have to prop the price up like it seems they did at day’s end Friday? Perhaps. That’s also their job. But to be fair to FB and the bankers, this was a crap time to come out to market. And everyone hoping the Facebook IPO would cure all the market woes were sniffing glue.

I’m willing to bet it goes down but that it will recover and go up from it’s IPO price. In fact, I did bet that. I bought 100 little shares for my 401k. At $38.25. Didn’t get the IPO price, but close enough. Do I think it might go down a few points? Sure. Do I think it will go to $20? No. But I was willing to chance the 100 shares and let it sit in my 401k. Not in my trading account. And if it goes down under $30 – would probably add.

If you believe in the company’s ability to grow and be worth more, buy the stock on the day of the IPO (when it reacts like this and not +50%) and let it sit there and grow and not worry about it’s daily price movements. You are an investor.

But if your sole intention is to flip shares for easy cash, and the price movement doesn’t go your way, that’s on you. That’s like blaming the dice roller you follow on at the craps table when you put all your chips on his/her rolls when he/she rolls snake eyes. Dude – you’re not only not rolling, you didn’t even get to blow on the dice. So you are gambling. Pure and simple. Quite your whining, take your lumps and walk away.